NFL’s B-List QBs Are on That List for Good Reasons
Let’s start by stipulating there is an A-list of NFL quarterbacks, a B-list and a couple of other categories (emerging, journeyman/backup and too-soon-to-tell, for instance).
Among current and recent QBs who have played for more than a decade the A-list, arguably, features Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Their accomplishments speak for themselves. (Currently in his ninth season, Russell Wilson soon will join the list.)
And then the arguments would begin … most likely about Ben Roethlisberger.
Let’s set him aside, for now, and create a B-list of Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer. And, actually, let’s throw Roethlisberger in with them for good measure.
So, we have some Super Bowl wins, but not by everyone. Some heady statistics, but longevity (and lack of injuries) will get you those even if you consistently play on a below-average team (see Stafford, Matthew).
We also have some likely serious Hall of Fame candidates, and we have some players whose post-season accomplishments (monetarily, at least) tend to outshine their career numbers (see Romo, Tony).
B-Listers by the Numbers
When you look at the list, the comparisons (as of December 4, 2020; from Pro Football Reference and The Football Database) actually are very interesting.
Key: QBR (quarterback rating); CB (comebacks); GWD (game-winning drives) (HOF Rating (Hall of Fame Rating; average inductee: 100)
Based on these numbers, we can conclude that we have a pretty good sense of the careers of Stafford (a lot of numbers on bad teams), Romo (nice QBR, TD percentages and a lot of good teammates) and Palmer (not bad considering his long-time addresses in Cincinnati and Arizona).
It’s also worth noting, when looking at career numbers, some of the career QBRs of the A-listers: Rodgers, 103.3; Brees, 98.7; Brady, 96.9; Peyton Manning, 96.5. And the wannabees: Patrick Mahomes,110.7 in 42 games; Deshaun Watson, 103.6 in 49 games; Wilson, 102.1 in 139 games
Now, let’s focus on the other names.
Five Deeper Dives
Matt Ryan. He’s actually had a much-better career than most of us would recall. Other than fantasy players, did anyone really notice? And — with the exception of the greatest team collapse in Super Bowl history — when was he ever on the big-boy stage?
Some facts:
· His TD percentage (4.7) to interception percentage (2.1) jumps off the page.
· Ryan’s 94.5 lifetime QBR (Quarterback Ranking) is very good and contributes significantly to his strong Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor ranking. And, despite the fact it’s only been above 100 for a full season twice, Ryan’s QBR has been in the 90s seven times and he has finished the season in the top 10 in 10 seasons.
· Comebacks (30) and game-winning drives (38) are meaningful.
· His W-L record of 113–87 (.557) is among the better ones, although his 4–6 playoff records probably impacts his overall reputation. The playoff W-L numbers are misleading, however, if you consider this: overall QBR of 100.8, TD passes (20, 5.7 percent)) and interceptions (seven, 2.0 percent).
· Awards: one-time All Pro, one-time Most Valuable Player, two-time Associated Press Offensive Player of the Year.
Now, about that Super Bowl loss: the fact is, Ryan posted a sky-high QBR of 144.1 on 17-of-23 passing for 284 yards and two touchdowns. But that’s not what we remember. We remember that of the Falcons had six second-half drives, five of which gained a total of 19 yards — plus a Ryan fumble that gave the Patriots the ball at the Atlanta 25.
Conclusion: Really nice career, but needed that Super Bowl win (and probably another one) for his legacy.
Ben Roethlisberger. There’s a lot to unpack with Roethlisberger.
· According to the Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor, he actually ranks slightly behind Rivers and Ryan in HOF credentials. So, there’s that.
· He’s played in three Super Bowls (winning two, the same as Eli Manning), but his Super Bowl statistics (69.9 QBR, three TD passes and five interceptions) are poor.
· Roethlisberger ranks eighth in career touchdown passes (and fifth in active players), yet his TD-to-interception ratio is less than Rivers’ 2.0. And’s he’s been sacked the fourth most (513) among all QBs.
· Big-time W-L stats, however: regular season: 154–71–1 (.684); playoffs: 13–8. A starter since his rookie year in 2004, he’s been on just one losing team (2006) in his career. A ton of comebacks (34) and game-winning drives (45).
· When considering Roethlisberger’s career success, it’s necessary to mention some of his receivers (Hines Ward, Antonio Brown, Heath Miller, Plaxico Burress and Mike Wallace).
Conclusion: It’s good to be a QB on teams with excellent defenses, receivers with super hands and top-noth coaching.
Philip Rivers. Rivers accumulated gaudy numbers across 17 seasons, the majority of which unceremoniously concluded at the end of the regular season.
His regular-season W-L record of 130–105 and winning percentage of .553 is OK, but his 5–6 playoff record can’t be ignored. Among QBs who have been starters in more than 100 victories, the .553 winning percentage is the lowest. In Rivers’ 15 years as a starter, he managed to post a QBR of more than 100 just five times, and ranked among the top-10 QBRs in just six seasons.
On the plus side, his career TD percentage of 5.2 percent is twice his interception percentage, and he ranks sixth overall (and third among active QBs) in TD passes with 413. He wasn’t selected to any first team all-pro selections.
Conclusion: He’s Matthew Stafford with a better won-lost record. Solid fantasy pick. That’s about it.
Joe Flacco. Yes, the won-lost numbers (98–77) are impressive. Question: was it his contribution to the Ravens, or the strength of the franchise over those years?
And there was the 2012 playoff season, when Flacco’s Super Bowl XLVII performance (three first half touchdown passes against San Francision) enabled the Ravens to jump out to a 21–7 lead and they subsequently held on for a 34–31 victory. Flacco completed 22 of 33 attempts for 287 yards (and the three TDs).
His QBR for the game was 124.2, which he actually topped just six times in more than 120 regular-season career games. Interestingly, his four 2012 playoff games were the high spot of his career as, in addition to the big Super Bowl number, he rang up QBRs of 125.6, 116.2 and 106.2 in the three previous playoff games.
In contrast, his career QBR is 84.0.
Tidbit: Among active QBs, Flacco’s stats are roughly comparable to Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Conclusion: He did his job for a team that usually won on defense. His career-end numbers with the Broncos and Colts won’t help.
Eli Manning. Is his career best illustrated by:
· his mediocre regular seasons (.500 W-L record of 117–117; seriously, who ends up right at .500?) …
· his 366 TD passes (4.5 percent) and 244 interceptions (3.0 percent) and career 84.1 QBR …
· or rather by two outlier Super Bowl victories (versus Tom Brady of all people) in which he was selected as MVP in each game?
To be fair, Manning did post 27 comebacks and 37 game-winning drives in his career, so the Super Bowl performances could be seen as consistent with his ability to put it together in the fourth quarter.
Interesting Eli-isms:
· The 2007 Super Bowl performance, in fact, followed a particularly horrendous regular season: 23 TDs, 20 interceptions and a 73.9 QBR.
· His overall playoff record was stellar: W-L record of 8–4, 18 TD passes, nine interceptions.
· He threw 22 pick-six interceptions in his career, ranking him 10th all-time. Peyton Manning, in contrast, had 27.
Conclusion: His ability to frustrate fans was richly deserved.
###
